China could use Russia’s cyber and hybrid war playbook against India

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In recent weeks, geopolitics experts and strategic thinkers in India have been focused on what the military standoff in Ukraine will mean for India. In addition to a potential increase in oil prices, the conversation has focused on the implications for India’s geopolitical alignments. Will India be able to balance its relationship with both the US and Russia? Will Russia get closer to China due to this brinkmanship battle with the US?

Recent statements at the Quad Summit seem to suggest that India is prioritising its strategic autonomy and ensuring that it does not alienate Russia. However, another key question to think about for Indian strategic circles is: What will the Chinese have learnt from the way this dispute between Russia and the US is playing out? And, how might they apply some of those lessons to China’s border dispute with India?

Two key lessons emerge for India. One, China stands to benefit the most from a protracted US-Russia conflict. The US needs to recognise this current Ukraine standoff for what it is. The Russians and Chinese have been coordinating on Ukraine and their strategy is clear: keep a double front war open against the US so that its efforts, energy, resources and focus remains divided while China gets freed up to initiate its own battles.

The Indo-Pacific will lose in priority and allocation of resources if this standoff continues. China will be the biggest beneficiary. Its most recent statement on its Indo-Pacific strategy stated as one of its goals as ‘forging connections between the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic.’ In other words, it wants its European partners and Nato allies to be active in support of its Indo-Pacific strategy and objectives. Admittedly, the US understands this, but a protracted conflict with Russia means that this linking — as tenuous as it might be to begin with — will remain more in intent and less in practice. With China’s hand strengthened due to this divided focus, India should, therefore, expect more aggression on its borders.

The Chinese are likely to follow the Russian playbook of employing this just short-of-war strategy: bring troops to the border, keep the threat levels high, but not necessarily engage in physical war.
Two, India must recognise that China will likely engage in a hybrid war with India, and not just a war on the physical border. War is no longer being fought with tanks, people and missiles alone. The conversation in Indian strategic circles has often missed the hybrid-war strategy that Russia has successfully deployed in its regional conflicts. Ukrainian officials have in recent weeks pointed to not just the physical troops amassed on their borders, but also almost more importantly, the destabilisation campaign involving cyberattacks and economic disruption.

If US and Ukrainian accounts are to be believed, Russia is engaging in hybrid war: physical conflict supplemented with elements of cyber- and information-warfare.

Various tools of hybrid war exist today, many of which India is familiar with, especially in its border states. Unmarked military troops and paramilitary mercenaries are commonly used by the adversary for plausible deniability. Sustained short-of-war aggression keeps the conflict on a steady simmer, and gradually feeds into domestic frustration. Political tactics, such as bolstering opposition, protests, instigation of socio-political movements, are also common. Increasingly, the kinetic aspects of war are nested within, and almost enabled by, the overall (mis)information warfare which entails sowing distrust and disharmony in the local population, and instigating face-offs between different naturally adversarial groups within the society.

Cyberattacks are now a key component of hybrid war. Earlier, these meant hacking or defacing of official websites. However, in recent years, cyber-offense capabilities have improved significantly and critical infrastructure such as power grids, dams, industries, nuclear facilities and telecommunications infrastructure has become vulnerable due to its dependence on cyber-connectivity.

In recent military strategy documents, China has emphasised the integration of information warfare and the strategic cyber frontier with its traditional military operations. This is further evidenced by the setting up of its Strategic Support Force (SSF) as the fifth branch of the People’s Liberation Army to oversee its cyber and electronic warfare force.

India must accordingly prepare for China to deploy a hybrid war strategy. We must remain alert to any misinformation campaigns or cyber warfare being deployed by China. Cyber-defense is a weak point for India as per many accounts, and therefore bolstering it must become a priority. In addition to the physical borders and infrastructure, we must fortify and secure our digital ones



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Disclaimer

Views expressed above are the author’s own.



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