Ebrahim Raisi as Iran’s new President; implications for India and the world

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The news of election of Ebrahim Raisi as the new head of government in Iran was not a surprise. Ever since the new constitution was put in place in the Islamic Republic of Iran after the Iranian Revolution in 1979, hardliners have been calling the shots which not only irked its neighbours but also caused discomfort in the relations with the western countries. The Shia dominated country has been on the world’s forefront for last few years over various issues.

Technically speaking, election of Raisi is going to make the policies of Iran more radicalised. Iran is a country where religious leaders take important decisions and President is just a pawn who works under the supreme leader and the 12 member Guardian Council made up of hardliner Islamic clerics and Ulemas.

This council has all the powers to run the country and conduct the elections. As a result, they never allowed any reformist to contest elections in last 25 years. 2009 Presidential elections are a live example which resulted in widespread protests all across Iran. With the election of Ebrahin Raisi, we now have a President who himself is an extreme hardliner governed by a hardliner Guardian Council.

Raisi is a cleric and reportedly qualified in law who served in various religious and administrative positions in last four decades. He was one of the two “Judges of Death” who ordered & supervised execution of Iranian political prisoners in 1988-1989. Some people called him the “Butcher of Iran” for this. This was a turning point in the relations with the rest of the world where several thousands of political prisoners, mostly from the left parties were killed over a period of 5 months. Some estimates confirm the number to be over 30,000. The number of people was so high that after being given death sentences, people were put on forklift trucks and hanged from cranes. This was the primary reason which put Ebrahim Raisi on the sanctions list of United States and several other countries.

With his election, relations with the west are going to be troublesome. At this time, when Iranian economy is in an extreme critical state and the Iranian Rial has devalued drastically over last few years, Raisi’s election will open a new plethora of possibilities. One of the affected parties will be India too. Let us discuss few of the aspects:

Iran’s relations with Western World

Raisi being in the sanctioned list and with the constant threat of American Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), relations with west are going to further deteriorate. Recent attacks on Iranian facilities and killing of Iranian General Qassim Soleimani as well as several scientists including Mohsin Fakhrizadeh have further affected it. Currently the relations are at a point from where returning to normalcy is totally impossible.

Growing proximity with China and Russia
This is one of the prime concerns before the world now. At the time when Iran is at loggerheads with US, it needs some partners and growing proximity with China and Russia is a clear indication that it is forming a dirty coalition of Russia-China-Pakistan-Iran. Last year Iran proposed a USD 400 billion deal with China which is the biggest deal China signed with any country is an example of the growing proximities. China wants to look for alternative markets for its products and reduce dependence on South China Sea. It is already present in Pakistan with its China Pakistan Economic Corridor (

) and extending it to Iran will not be a problem.

With this deal, while China gets an uninterrupted supply of oil from Iran, Tehran will get several infrastructure projects and funds to run its country. China will also have uninterrupted access to the markets of Europe without having any threat of a maritime blockade in South China Sea.

Likewise with Russia, Iran is not only having strong military ties but also a significant trade balance. Iran is the fifth largest trade partner of Russia and Russian companies like Gazprom and Lukoil are involved in development of several oil and gas projects in Iran. Iran and Russia both are backing the Bashar Al Assad’s coalition in Syria with all their military might. This dirty coalition of China- Pakistan-Russia- Iran may cause disturbances for the world in future.

The Indian Dilemma
India’s relations with the middle eastern country matter a lot. Iran has been one of the biggest suppliers of oil to India and supported us till the US put strict sanctions on it and the trade had to be suspended. However, with repeated calls of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamnei to back terrorism in Kashmir and term it as a freedom struggle has caused serious discomfort with the current Indian Government. Despite of the fact that India has been supporting Iran in thick and thin and Indian PM visited Iran in 2016, the radical attitude of the Iranian supreme leader is a sore point in the bilateral relations. Current president Raisi is a staunch follower of this kind of radicalism. We are yet to see his reactions, but one thing is sure, that Indo-Iranian relations will not be as warm as they were earlier.

One more reason of deteriorating relations is India’s growing proximity with Sunni dominated Arab world. Iran has raised its concern several times but when it comes to the interests of a country and every country is free to choose its friends, India is moving ahead with a policy of global cooperation. While India has to keep Iran on its good side, it cannot close doors for other Arab countries too.

With increasing Chinese footprints in Iran, two of the major projects where India has invested heavily are in doldrums. These are Shahid Bahisti Port at Chabahar and Farzad ‘B’ gas fields in Persian Gulf. Hardliners in Iran have been against these projects and with the election of Ebrahim Raisi, there are bleak chances of situation being improved. The indications were visible in the recent past.

Current fault lines in the middle east with other Sunni dominated countries going favourable with Israel is also one of the factors deciding the fate of Indo-Iranian relationship in future.

To summarise, India and global powers will have to work on two fronts, on one hand, they need to stop the dirty coalition of Russia-China-Pakistan and Iran and on other hand, they need to curtail radicalism in Iran so that the country may join the mainstream world once again.

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